Trump would lose Canada, but not by as much as you might think

Our latest spark*insights research shows if Canadians were voting in the US Presidential election, Trump would lose, but by a lower margin than you might think.

Jan 09, 2024

Our latest survey results show that if Canadians were voting in the US Presidential election, and the two nominees were Donald Trump and Joe Biden, the Democrat would win by a wide margin.

However, 33% support for Trump is higher than has generally been seen in Canadian polls in the past, and suggests that Biden has struggled to maintain popularity in Canada (as has been the case in the United States). Among the findings:

  • Trump has considerable support among Canadian Conservative voters, with 50% saying they would pick him over Joe Biden.
  • While Biden would win every province, Trump would come closest in Alberta, where 42% say they would vote for him.
  • Demographically, Trump’s support is stronger among younger people, and especially younger men. Roughly half of men under 45 (52%) say they would vote for Trump. Women 45 and older were the group most likely to support Biden (79%).

Our Take

According to Bruce Anderson: “Trump has never been very popular in Canada, but these results illustrate two things. First, Joe Biden is underperforming the normal level of support for a Democratic President and has slipped in popularity in the last couple of years. Second, sizeable proportions of younger men and Conservative voters see something in Trump that other Canadians are put off by. There clearly are MAGA voters in Canada, and not a minuscule number of them.”

The data referenced were gathered online, with a representative sample of 2175 adults across Canada, between the dates December 15, 2023 and December 27, 2023.

About spark*insights

spark*insights is lead by Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s leading and most experienced public opinion researchers, along with Alex Kohut, former Senior Manager of Research & Advertising in the Office of the Prime Minister. From polling and research to analysis and guidance, we help organizations, uncover the factors driving or influencing public perception to gain valuable insights into the shape and movement of the landscape.

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