Insights

spark* data reveals that Mark Carney's popularity is partly due to Canadians seeing something they thought was no longer possible in politics - bringing people together across dividing lines.

Wide leads in Quebec, Ontario, Atlantic and BC. But the numbers have tightened, a lot, in Alberta and Saskatchewan. PM Carney's travels to market Canada is one reason why.

Red Tories and blue Liberals have found someone they like better, and trust more. Poilievre’s speech reflected a recognition that he had to change to be competitive.

Two thirds think the Conservatives should replace Poilievre, including 27% of Conservative voters.

Normally if people are down about the economy they are angry at government. It’s more complicated right now, as people see economic pressures from outside our borders.

Always lots of coverage of top line horse race numbers, but that can be like putting vaseline on the lens. Elections turn on a pretty small group of voters who are up for grabs.

69% think the opposition parties should let the budget pass, including 73% on the left and 51% on the right. Hardly fertile ground for the NDP and the CPC.

Betting on Poilievre is betting that someone who’s been in politics for 20 years will grow more popular, and the odds tell us that only rarely happens.

Kate, Will, and to a lesser degree Harry, are a lot more popular than Charles and Camilla.