Most Canadians think Putin will win if the west stops helping Ukraine

Our latest research conducted in consultation with the Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI) shows that a strong majority of Canadians continue to believe in the need to support Ukraine in its defense against Russia, and that the risks to the world will grow, if we don’t. These findings are based on a national online survey of 2876 adult Canadians, conducted online, between the dates February 9th and 19th, 2024.

What will happen if Western countries cut back support for Ukraine?

We offered two different points of view as to what would happen in this scenario, and asked respondents to choose which was closest to their view.

“If Western countries cut back their support for Ukraine, Putin will win” or “If Western countries cut back their support for Ukraine, Ukraine will be able to hold off Russia on its own”.

More than two-thirds (69%) predicted Putin would win if Western allies back away.

Larger majorities of Liberal (75%) and NDP (73%) voters believed this, compared to Conservative voters (66%).

What will happen if Russia wins the war with Ukraine?

We offered two different points of view as to what would be the likely future with Russia and its neighbour states, and asked respondents to choose which was closest to their view.

“If Russia wins the war with Ukraine, Putin will want to expand to other nearby countries”; or

“If Russia wins the war with Ukraine, Putin’s ambitions will stop there.”

More than three-quarters (76%) predicted that after winning in Ukraine, Putin’s aggression would expand. Liberal (80%) and NDP (85%) voters are more convinced of the broader threat that Putin represents, compared to Conservative voters (68%).

Should Canada care what happens with Russia in Europe?

We offered two different points of view as to how Canada should think about our responsibilities in this war, and asked respondents to choose which was closest to their view.

“Whatever Putin wants to do in Europe is not really something Canada should care too much about”; or “Canada should care about and do whatever we can to support our allies against Russian aggression”.

Two-thirds (66%) believe Canada must back our allies, including most Liberal (67%) and NDP (78%) voters, but a smaller majority of Conservative voters (59%).

Our takeaway

Bruce Anderson: “While with the passage of time, public enthusiasm for Canada’s contribution to Ukraine’s defense may have dimmed slightly, Canadians remain broadly convinced that Ukraine needs the help of the West in order to persevere, that Putin’s aggression will only grow if he wins the battle in Ukraine, and that Canada must maintain a commitment to support allies in resisting Putin’s aggression. Clearly there are some isolationist pressures within the Conservative movement in Canada, as in the United States, but the majority of Conservative voters remains of the view that Canada must continue to support Ukraine and resist Putin.