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Liberals losing the left, right, centre right, and have only a narrow advantage on the centre left
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Our survey of 2,688 Canadians (June 14th to 21st) shows a wide Conservative lead in national polling. The CPC would receive 42% support (+8 from the 2021 election) if an election were held today, well ahead of the Liberals (23%, -10) and NDP (17%, -1). The Liberals are 25 points behind in BC, 22 points behind in Ontario, 14 points behind in Atlantic, and face a three-way fight in Quebec.
The Conservatives also enjoy the largest potential voter pool – only one in three 33% won’t vote for the party. Almost half (47%) say they won’t vote Liberal or NDP (46%). The Liberals won 39% of the vote in 2015 – today only 16% say they are sure they will vote Liberal in the next election.
Most (64%) Canadians want a centrist government, but only 48% say they think that is what Mr. Trudeau is offering. Only 13% want a left of centre government – but 37% say they think that is what the Liberals under Trudeau are offering. Pierre Poilievre is not perfectly aligned with voter desires; far more think he would deliver right of centre government (43%) than say that is what they would like to see (23%).
In terms of what impact this has on voting intention - Mr. Trudeau’s biggest gap lies with those who say they prefer a centrist government that has a focus on economic and fiscal issues, people who could be characterized as centre-right. This is the largest segment of the voting public, representing 38% of the electorate, and Trudeau trails Poilievre by a 28 points among this group.
Poilievre has a 44-point lead among right of centre voters, a 28-point lead among centre right voters, trails Trudeau by only 6 points among centre left voters. Among voters on the left, the NDP has a 12-point advantage over the Liberals.
Bruce Anderson, Partner and Chief Strategy Officer: “The Liberals are facing a cold but very clear fact. They have failed to win NDP voters on the left while losing massive ground among centre right voters. Unless the Liberal Party finds a way to become competitive again – especially with these centre right voters - the Conservatives are poised to run the table in parts of the country where the Liberals have done well in the past.
Alex Kohut, Senior Director: “Currently, there is a disconnect between the type of governance Canadians want and the perceived style of the Trudeau government, and this has allowed Pierre Poilievre to expand his polling lead with his message discipline on economic issues.”
spark*insights is led by Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s leading and most experienced public opinion researchers, along with Alex Kohut, former Senior Manager of Research & Advertising in the Office of the Prime Minister. From polling and research to analysis and guidance, we help organizations, uncover the factors driving or influencing public perception to gain valuable insights into the shape and movement of the landscape.
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