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But young men and young women are far apart on this choice
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In our survey of 1,815 Canadians (August 3rd-7th, 2024) we asked Canadians who they would vote for if they could choose between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris.
Harris (68%) would more than double Trump’s support (32%). She would win in every part of the country, but somewhat more narrowly in Alberta (56%-44%).
Harris would have a 48-point lead among women, and a 24 point lead among men. She would sweep 80% or more among Liberal and NDP voters, while Trump would beat Harris by 8 points among Conservative voters.
Perhaps the most striking of the splits in the data is the difference between young men and young women. Among men under 30, Trump would beat Harris by 20 points. Among women of the same age, Harris would win by a massive 34-point margin.
A majority (57%) of Canadians think Harris will win the US Presidential election. Most Conservatives, and most young people, especially young men, think Trump will prevail.
Bruce Anderson, Partner and Chief Strategy Officer: “Trump’s support in Canada has grown a lot since 2016. Meanwhile in almost no time flat, Harris has become the favourite of most Canadians and a massive favourite among progressive voters, older voters and women. To the extent that Trump has developed a base of support in Canada, that base is young men, conservative voters and in Alberta.”
spark*insights is led by Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s leading and most experienced public opinion researchers, along with Alex Kohut, former Senior Manager of Research & Advertising in the Office of the Prime Minister. From polling and research to analysis and guidance, we help organizations, uncover the factors driving or influencing public perception to gain valuable insights into the shape and movement of the landscape.
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