In our latest national survey (conducted just before Christmas, we asked people to rank order their preferences for Liberal leader, if Justin Trudeau decides to step down. In terms of first choice preferences, Chrystia Freeland and Mark Carney garnered more support than the other names we tested (Leblanc, Anand, Wilkinson, Champagne, Joly, Clark)

A race involving a vote by party members may not mirror broader public opinion. However, given the proximity of a leadership change (if there is one) to a general election, Liberals may pay more attention to how the broader audience feels. Among Conservative voters (43% in our poll), Carney is tied with Freeland. Freeland has an advantage among NDP voters (19% in our poll).

Freeland is more familiar to Canadians, with only 27% saying they don’t know enough about her to have an opinion. More than 40% say that about Carney and other names tested.

Overall, these numbers may reinforce the argument that a race could bring helpful visibility to candidates who are less well known to the public, something which could help reduce the headwinds associated with being an incumbent government.