In our latest national survey (December 21-23^rd 2024) we asked respondents which of 6 potential new Liberal leaders would “do the best job representing Canadians interests in negotiating the right trade and overall relationship with the incoming Trump Administration.

Chrystia Freeland (28%) and Mark Carney (23%) both garnered significantly more support than the other names we tested (Dominic Leblanc, Francois-Philippe Champagne, Melanie Joly, Christy Clark) who ranged between 11% and 14%.

Carney is basically tied with Freeland among men and Conservative voters, and polls ahead of Freeland west of Ontario. Freeland does better among women, Quebec voters, and has a 6-point lead among Liberals. Christy Clark polls third in BC, and Champagne and Joly poll tied for second in Quebec.

About a quarter (27%) don’t know enough about Freeland to have an opinion, and more than 40% say that about the other names tested. Freeland thus has an advantage in terms of name recognition, and arguably Carney (and others) have the advantage of being less associated with the track record of the Liberal Party.

According to Bruce Anderson “If Justin Trudeau steps down, the number of voters who might consider the Liberals rises by 16 points, according to our research. Capitalizing on that opportunity will rest on new potential leaders having an opportunity to present a fresh vision of what the Liberal Party stands for and to become better known personally. In what is likely to be an abbreviated race, these numbers suggest attention would gravitate towards a contest between the former Deputy PM and Finance Minister Freeland, and Mark Carney.”