Four things have combined to cause this. First was the resignation of Justin Trudeau. Many voters were ready to vote for anyone who could replace him, because they had decided they wanted to move on, and move in a different direction.

Second was the dramatic first weeks of the second Trump Presidency. Canadians are angry and deeply worried about what will happen to our economy. To use financial market vernacular, they are not looking to add to risk, the new mood is about a “flight to safety”.

Third was the emerging visibility of Mark Carney as the possible next Liberal leader. Voters are interested in his experience in handling financial crises. They like that he knows the world beyond politics, cares about the size and cost of government. While some want fire breathing politicians, Carney’s confident, genial, lower-key manner of expressing his thoughts is a good match for the moment.

Finally, as Carney’s visibility increased, more voters started to compare him with Pierre Poilievre. This comparison has gone badly for Poilievre, at least so far. Poilievre’s battle cry for a couple of years has been a promise of massive, disruptive, table-flipping change. It worked, until it didn’t.

Beyond the challenge of trying to pivot from ‘Canada’s broken and I’m going to change everything’, Poilievre has created another problem for himself. As an Opposition Leader you aren’t responsible for imposing policies that people can object to. You don’t need to offend people, and should generally try to avoid doing so. Poilievre on the other hand seemed to relish a grating style. Today, 39% of voters don’t like him. That’s twice as many as dislike Mark Carney.

A lot of attention has been paid to a Liberal resurgence in Quebec. The price Poilievre is paying for his style is higher in Quebec than anywhere else – 71% of BQ voters don’t like him. Only 10% of BQ voters don’t like Carney. (See Chart below) If voters in Quebec, like voters elsewhere, decide that the priority is a strong federal government to cope with the Trump threats, the Conservative leader has put himself at a disadvantage. His withering personal attacks on Quebec mayors was a “card laid, card played”, as the poker saying goes.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/poilievre-plante-marchand-social-media-housing-1.7087880

Similar patterns are evident among NDP voters. While a lot of NDP voters were unhappy with Justin Trudeau, today they are as positive about Mark Carney as Liberal voters are. Poilievre made a point of not caring about being anyone’s second choice. This was another idea that seemed risk and cost free, until it wasn’t.

Today, a majority (56%) of those we survey would prefer to see Mark Carney and the Liberals running the federal government after the next election rather than Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives (44%) – a majority of men and women, across all age groups and in every region except Alberta. Three quarters of NDP and BQ voters prefer a Carney win to a Poilievre win.

More Canadians like what they see in Carney, compared to what they have come to observe with Pierre Poilievre. This includes substantive issue expertise (better ideas for workers and families, better choices about where to spend and cut spending, etc), as well as personality traits (a more friendly and positive person, more down to earth, more enjoyable to spend time with, etc.)

The criticisms Poilievre has levelled against Carney lacked impact. People don’t think he’s much like Justin Trudeau or would run a government like Trudeau’s. Few care that he made money in business, has friendships with important people around the world, or went to a meeting called the World Economic Forum. Whatever the potential of these arguments might have been in a different moment in time, they fall flat today.

In contrast, twice as many people are put off that Poilievre might be the favourite of Trump and Musk, that he likes saying Canada is broken, that he can be angry and impolite with people, and has friends in far-right places.

In short, in Poilievre Season 1 the Conservative leader ran a very successful campaign to beat Justin Trudeau in a world where Donald Trump wasn’t a factor. Season 2 is in trouble. Mostly because of choices the Conservative leader made, believing that his style would never carry a price, and that Canadians would never want anything other than a table flipping populist.

Bruce Anderson has been a pollster, strategy and communications advisor for more than 40 years. He is a frequent commentator on Canadian politics and public policy including on The Bridge podcasts. He is a founding Partner and Chief Strategy Officer of Spark Advocacy. Over the years he has worked with Progressive Conservative and Liberal politicians but has not been active in campaigns for several election cycles, until this one. He is an active supporter of Liberal Leadership Candidate Mark Carney.