There were lots of reasons to imagine that Canada was heading for a period of more and more intense political polarization. We might yet. But that’s not what’s happening right now.

On the surface, with the two largest parties deadlocked at about 40% support each, we might wonder if US style partisanship is in the cards - where every Liberal voter can’t imagine voting Conservative, and vice versa.

But most voters in Canada don’t want to choose sides - they prefer to choose solutions.

Conservatives spent millions telling voters that Carney was a tax cheat, a plagiarist, an elitist, a liar, a radical leftist, and worse. If Canadians were really into polarization, as we see in US politics, that amount of ordnance would have taken a real toll on the Liberal leader’s reputation.

But new survey results conducted by Spark Insights (sample 3450, collected between May 26-30, 2025) tell a different story. While horse race numbers suggest an tight and polarized competition, these can mislead.

Almost 2 out of 3 (64%) approve of the way the federal government is handling its responsibilities. Among those who self define as on the “left of the spectrum” 80% approve, it’s 71% among those on the centre, but maybe the bigger news is that 38% of those who say they are on the right of the spectrum also approve of what they are seeing. So do 51% of Albertans, who clearly are seeing something in the Carney government that they haven’t seen from Liberals in a long time.

Asked for feelings about Mark Carney we find a 60% favourable, 33% unfavorable split. His net score is positive in every part of the country except Alberta - but in Alberta he finds 41% favourable, 51% unfavourable, definitely not what Liberal leaders have been used to seeing. Carney’s Alberta roots and approach to major projects and the energy conversation both are undoubtedly part of what is reflected in these numbers.

I’ll write a separate, more detailed piece about what people see in Mark Carney as an individual, but here’s what’s driving positive feelings about the new government, including in unlikely quarters.

Two thirds or more of those surveyed feel the Carney government is bringing a fresh approach to government, focusing on the right issues, taking a good approach to dealing the the US, having a good attitude about serving the public, trying to strengthen unity, and working to create a stronger economy. (For those who maintained that the first couple of days of the new government were some sort of fumble-fest, the public has not seen it that way.)

These numbers are to some degree evidence of a grace or honeymoon period, and no doubt are subject to change in the future.

I’ve always tended to be a glass half full guy - and I know this analysis leans into a perspective that I personally would prefer to see - that we resist the reflexive polarization that has made US politics so hard to watch and so harmful to the world.

But it’s inescapable in these numbers that there are a lot of voters who are not hating on a government they didn’t vote for.

So far, Mark Carney is drawing optimism across the spectrum, and limiting political polarization in Canada. They would rather see it succeed, and are feeling pretty good about what they are seeing so far.