As Mark Carney heads to Washington for talks with President Trump, Canadians are watching with anxiety, but measured expectations. Over recent months, like most people around the world, Canadians have observed that the President’s passion for tariffs is not going to disappear - and this realization is bringing a fresh pragmatism to how voters think about Canada’s ideal approach.

Over the last week, we completed a major national survey of 3000 adults, including probes on tariff and trade. Overall, two thirds (68%) give the Carney government good or acceptable marks for “handling Canada-US relations” and 75% offer the same grades for “working to diversify Canada’s trade relations.”

In pursuit of diversification and trade, Carney has made more than a dozen international trips since being sworn in. Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has said Carney “prances around abroad while Canadians pay the price at home”, but most Canadians see things differently.

Across the country, 72% think these trips are important work for the PM to do, to build new opportunities and attract investment”. Half of Conservative voters see it that way. Two thirds of Albertans do as well.

When Poilievre offers this type of criticism not only is he not persuading many people, he’s stoking doubts about whether he’d be the right Prime Minister for the country at this moment in time.

Asked who would get the best possible trade deal with the US, two out of three (66%) say Carney would outdo Poilievre. Even one in five people who voted for Poilievre’s party earlier this year think Carney would do a better job on Canada US trade. In Alberta, 55% see Carney as the better choice for this task.

One of the most discussed aspects of the current trade and tariffs situation is about the pace towards a resolution. What we see is not a simple ‘elbows up’ or ‘elbows down’ preference, it’s more like ‘head down, and take the time needed to get the best possible outcome’. By a 61%-39% margin Canadians think it’s better to be “patient and wait for the best time to work on a trade deal with the US, there is more to be lost than gained”.

Most (63%) also believe that “compared to other countries, Canada will still end up having the best trade deal with the US”. Canadians are adjusting their expectations in reaction to how the US is proceeding with the rest of the world, and the evidence that the determination of the President to use tariffs is undiminished.

Finally, while Canadians obviously want the best outcome possible with the US, the Prime Minister’s bullishness about Canada’s opportunities with the rest of the world is shared pretty widely. 85% agree with the PM’s assertion in New York recently that “Canada has many things that the world values, and this should help us win more investment and trade opportunities in the future.”

Canadians continue to see the Canada US and tariff matter as hugely important and exceedingly delicate. They want maturity, diligence and pragmatism to guide Canada’s approach. And, they will judge what happens in the months ahead, not against the ideal, but by whether they feel Canada is doing as well as possible, given these highly unusual circumstances.