Other than tagging every scandal something-gate, It’d be hard to find a more overused phrase in modern political analysis than “it’s the economy, stupid”. In 1992, James Carville wrote it on a sign he put up in Bill Clinton’s campaign headquarters to remind his side that this was the surest way to stay focused on issues that would matter to voters.

The fact that it is overused doesn’t mean it’s wrong. It used to be axiomatic that if people were down about the economy they would be angry at government.

However, in Canada, something’s different today.

Satisfaction with the Carney government is up 3 points to 62% in our latest Spark Insights survey. (Nationwide, online, 3417 Canadians, fielded December 1-4th.)

You might ask, how is this possible, even as economic uncertainty persists and the cost of living remains a pain point. It has to do with what people think is causing our economic challenges, and what they think it will take to improve things.

When we asked people what is responsible for economic challenges in Canada, a third (33%) blamed poor government policies.

The majority are split between thinking our problems are a function of global changes and trends (31%), or pressures from the US (36%).

In other words, most people think our economic challenges are coming from outside, rather than self inflicted.

Of course that doesn’t mean that people let any government off the hook for dealing with today’s challenges, but it’s helps explain why many of those who say the economy is a deep source of pain for them, think the Carney government is doing a reasonable job and would prefer a Carney government to a Poliievre government, if an election were held today.

• 41% of Canadians say the economy is “poor” for them and their household today. Among that 41% - a third approve of the Carney government, and 40% would prefer a Carney government to a Poilievre government.

  
  

• Among the majority (59%) who feel the economy is good or acceptable, 81% approve of the Carney government’s performance, and 75% would rather a Carney win to a Poilievre win, in an election today.

  
  

• Among the majority 67% who think Canada’s economic challenges are caused either by global trends or US pressures, 76% prefer a Carney to a Poilievre government.

The bottom line? Yes, politics today is still mostly about the economy. But people are looking for a strategy and a leadership skill set that is fit for purpose in a time when our economy is challenged from new and largely external pressures.

Trump was elected President about 400 days ago, weeks later announced that he was going to attack imports from Canada and many other trading partners.

In doing so, he created domino effects that are still dropping - perhaps accelerating - around the world. This turmoil has written a new chapter in Canadian politics, and a fundamentally different take on “It’s the economy, stupid”.