A few weeks shy of the first anniversary of the election of a Mark Carney led government finds the country broadly endorsing his leadership. Our latest Spark Insights national survey (4000, online, field work between March 22-26, 2025) finds Liberal support at 46% compared to 30% for the Conservatives.

The Liberals have opened up wide leads in Ontario, Quebec, Atlantic Canada and BC and are only 6-7 points behind the Conservatives in Alberta and Saskatchewan.

Carney has pulled votes from across the spectrum, including those who voted Conservative, NDP and BQ last year, while holding on to 89% of those who cast a Liberal ballot.

We’ll put out more detail from this in depth survey in the next couple of days, but the clearest indicator of why Liberal support has grown is rising approval of how the Carney government has been handling its responsibilities. Current approval sits at 68% - basically tied with the numbers we were seeing last June, shortly after the government assumed office.

A majority in every region express approval, including 58% in Alberta and Saskatchewan. Two thirds of those who voted NDP and BQ last year approve of the Carney government today. And just under a third of those who voted Conservative feel the same way too.

With 3 important by elections coming up in a couple of weeks, these findings make it clear that opposition party candidates have their work cut out for them to muster enthusiasm for a protest or “send Ottawa a message” outcome.