In our latest spark*insights polling (nationwide, online, June 7-12, 4462 adults), we asked people to rate the performance of the Carney government across 22 separate items. Here are a few key points that emerge.

• A majority gave the government good or acceptable performance ratings on all 22 items. The average across all items was 72.3%
• 7 of the items tested showed modest gains since January of this year. All other shifts were within the margin of error.
• Top rated areas of performance include investment in military, diversification of trade relations and strengthening Canada’s image internationally.
• The two bottom rated items were housing affordability and the cost of living. Both improved 3 points from January.
• 75% and 74% respectively offer good or acceptable ratings on climate policy and protection of the environment.
• 72% are satisfied with the approach taken to Canada US relations.
• 71% satisfied with effort to improve the economy.

These top line numbers help explain why we find a continuing overall level of satisfaction in the mid 60’s. Underneath the top lines there are some patterns that are interesting.

The NDP Voter

A majority of those who voted NDP last year give the government good or acceptable ratings on all 22 items. Weaker assessments were on protection of the environment, oil and gas policy, support for social programs, cost of living and housing affordability.

The Conservative Voter

On 8 of the 22 items, 50% or more of those who voted Conservative last year offer the government a good or acceptable rating. On only 6 of 22 items do 60% or more offer a poor rating: size and cost of government, immigration, housing, crime and cost of living.

So what would I take away from these numbers?

First, given the amount of disruption in the world, the economic challenges and headwinds, uncertainty about trade relations with the US, Canadians are remarkably accepting of the direction and approach of the Carney government, so far.

Second, we see less partisan division than had become customary in Canada. It is unusual for a Prime Minister to muster this level of support across partisan lines.

Third, opinion is pretty stable, I don’t believe there is a lot of week to week or even month to month movement. The large majority of people are paying little attention to the normal political jockeying in the Ottawa precinct. We don’t see any shift in our voting intention data, with a Liberal lead in the high teens, just shy of the last Leger reading.

Recurring speculation about how support for the government may crash unless X happens by Y feels to me more pro forma than connected to evidence, since the prevailing evidence is to the contrary. Obviously at some point, people grow restless but the evidence of the past year is that they have become more patient rather than more impatient, when it comes to progress on tough issues, such as Canada US relations.

Clearly, Conservative leader Poilievre has failed to galvanize his own 2025 coalition by arguing that Carney has been a total failure for Canada. And the NDP voters no longer look like they would only vote Liberal to avoid a Conservative government.

(Our results are always weighted to the proper proportions of the population by age, education, gender and region. We do not consider it a reliable practice to ask people how they voted in last election and weight results based on how people answer that question. For additional views on this topic there is a useful paper prepared by Canadian academic researchers. Durand, C., Deslauriers, M . & Valois I. (2015). Should Recall of Previous Votes Be Used to Adjust Estimates of Voting Intention? Survey Insights: Methods from the Field, Weighting: Practical Issues and ‘How to’ Approach. Retrieved from https://surveyinsights.org/?p=...)