Since the start of 2026, our survey results have found that two out of three Canadians generally approve of the performance of the Carney government. There has been very little fluctuation during that period of time, all of it essentially within what one would consider the margin of error.

In our latest wave (nationwide, online, 2940 interviews, July 3-12) 66% indicated approval of the Carney government, with a majority in every region of the country offering that opinion.

Asked what they would like to see happen if an election were held soon, 64% said they would prefer a Carney victory compared to 36% who said they would like to see Pierre Poilievre come out on top.

• Three quarters of those who voted NDP or BQ last year would prefer a Carney government to a Poilievre one. So too would 18% of 2025 Conservative voters.
• Half of our sample in Alberta said they’d prefer a Carney win - a province which elected 34 Conservatives out of 37 seats and accounts for roughly a quarter of the federal Conservative caucus.

We measure perceptions of the federal government performance across 25 different topics. The average “good” or “acceptable” rating combined is 71.7%. At the top of the ratings chart is investing in defence, diversifying trade and strengthening the image of Canada in the world. At the bottom are the cost of living and housing.

My overall takeaway from these trends is this.

2025 was marked by a lot of uncertainty, change, anxiety and volatility. Canadians reacted to new leadership, threats and insults from the US President, a sense that the world order was under extraordinary pressure.

As the calendar turned to 2026, the opinion environment is more becalmed - which is not to say complacent. People are stressed, but not shocked. We don’t see material fluctuation. Most people think the broad outlines of Carney’s approach is a fit for the times, and are ready to see how things play out. The friction in the relationship with the US, and the resulting sense of urgency to build new opportunities, continues to be the most obvious driving force in Canadian public opinion. The most recent Trump tariffs and comments on wildfires will continue to absorb a great amount of the political bandwidth.

The Liberals are helped by the fact that the Conservative leader doesn’t look to most Canadians like a competitive alternative to Carney. His support level on our hypothetical head to head ballot question shows significant weakness among the coalition that voted for Poilievre just last year.