There’s no election soon, and how people would vote if an election were today is not a reliable predictor of what they might do in two or three years. But since there are by-elections coming up in a few weeks it’s worth examining the political mood right now, for signals that might be relevant to what happens in those three ridings.

Turnouts in these three ridings last year were between 69%-72%, in line with the national average (69.5%) Typical turnouts for by elections are in the 35-40% range.

Two factors that can disrupt that pattern: if people really feel upset with the incumbent government and want to “send a message”, or if there’s a high profile and popular local candidate.

I looked at our latest Spark polling (Nationwide July 24-August 02, 2026 | 2439 Interviews) for evidence of a “send a message”mood. Here’s what we see.

• Overall satisfaction with the government is steady at 66%. On 25 different areas of government performance, between 62%-76% said they feel the government was doing a good or acceptable job.
• On the two lowest rated areas of government performance (affordable housing and the cost of living), results show mild improvement in recent months.
• Our voting intention indicator shows a 19 point lead for the Liberals. (Our questions asks how people think they are “most likely to vote in the next federal election, whenever that may be”, and we mention the leader’s name along with the Party.)

From a 30,000 foot level, none of this looks like built up pressure to send the government a message. When we look a little closer, there are a couple of interesting patterns to note.

• Among those who say they sit on the right side of the political spectrum, the Conservatives have a 22 point lead. That’s a fairly slim lead by historical standards.
• Among those on the left, the Liberals have a 47 point lead.
• On the centre, (where just over half of Canadians live) the Liberals have a 24 point lead.

What could one reasonably infer from these patterns as relates to by elections?

First, the current Carney approval rating isn’t suggestive of a high turnout motivated by a “send a message” mood. Second, Conservative candidates will struggle as long as their party is polling this weakly among those on the centre of the spectrum.

Third, while some exposure may exist on the left for the Liberals, it’s not visible in our numbers to this point. It’s hard to imagine motivation levels for NDP candidates will be high right now.

Finally, satisfaction with the Carney government is running at 69% in Quebec, including 56% among those who voted BQ last year. While Chicoutimi-Le Fjord has been a good battleground for the BQ in the past, the motivation level of the BQ voter has to be a something of a question mark.