spark*insights

Canadians prefer trade peace, but are ready to defend ourselves with whatever it takes.

80% are willing to tax or limit exports of oil, canola, potash and electricity, and end purchases of US military equipment.

Sep 08, 2026

The jibes aimed at Canadians from the US President and his Cabinet are hard to miss. Canadians are following the tariff dispute like they’ve followed few issues in the 45 years I’ve been measuring public opinion.

But if Donald Trump, Howard Lutnick, Scott Bessent, Jamieson Greer, and Pete Hoekstra think Canadians are wilting in the face of the insults and threats, they are very much mistaken.

In our latest Spark Insights polling (6345 adults, online, August 26-September 1) here’s where the mood of the country is, in a nutshell.

83% say “I really hope we can get back to the kind of friendly and mutually beneficial relationship that we once had with the US.” There has never been any question of what outcome people are looking for.

The Canadian mindset is “why did you agree to trade agreements that you said were in your interests, only to renege on them, claiming that they were one-sided and a rip off?” The notion that selling our oil to Americans is ripping them off seems ludicrous to Canadians. The President said if America stopped buying from Canada, they would just save the money and be better off. It’s a head scratcher.

Canadians have hoped that a spirit of serious discussion would work to end the White House rhetoric and tariff escalation. But we knew hope wasn’t a strategy, and the US President might not be open to reason.

His tariff idea is a deadweight for his Party in the run up to the US mid term elections, but he’s busy posting memes and building monuments.

Meanwhile, Canadians have been getting on with a parallel effort to expand trade and investment relationships with the rest of the world. The response has been unprecedented. In a matter of days, investors from around the world will be in Toronto to explore the many opportunities to build with Canadians

Public opinion polls by our company and others have made it clear that Canadians are giving Prime Minister Carney and his team a good amount of latitude to make the choices they feel are best, in dealing with US tariffs. No one wants more tariffs, but pretty much everyone is willing to stay in the fight, including supporting some ideas that would have seemed out of the question a couple of years ago.

About 80% would be willing to support export restrictions or export taxes on Canadian oil and canola, export restrictions on potash and electricity, and an end to purchases of US military equipment. There is virtually no difference in the level of support for each of these hypothetical measures.

You might wonder if this is regionally divisive. The range of support for these measures is between 74% and 78% in Alberta, only a few points below the national average.

What about partisan divides? Two out of three Conservative voters would support limiting or taxing our oil exports to the US. This is more or less the political equivalent of unanimity.

That people would support these measures doesn’t mean that they hope to see them.

The proper analysis is that people don’t actually want these things to happen. But they are willing to stand our ground and use whatever tools might be most effective to bring the Trump Administration to a place where it wants to stop trying to destroy our economy so that it can annex our country and take our resources.

Canadians do not believe that this is what most Americans want. But they do see it as unmistakably the agenda of this President and his fellow travellers. Equating us to “a yippie dog” won’t make us weep or bend.

If President Trump imposes yet more pain and cost on Americans doing business with Canada, Canadians are very unlikely to waver.

And then it will be up to Americans to decide what kind of relationship they want with Canada, and whether they believe trade with other countries is a subsidy and a rip off, or how economies thrive, compete and innovate.

About spark*insights

spark*insights is led by Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s leading and most experienced public opinion researchers. From polling and research to analysis and guidance, we help organizations, uncover the factors driving or influencing public perception to gain valuable insights into the shape and movement of the landscape.

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