The recent tensions in the Canada US relationship have firmed – not softened – support for Prime Minister Carney’s leadership.

Across Canada, (according to our latest Spark Insights survey 6535 interviews, online) the Liberals now hold a 20 point lead over the Conservatives, 49% to 29%. The NDP stands at 9 and the BQ at 23% in Quebec. The Liberals are virtually tied with the Conservatives in Alberta and Saskatchewan and lead everywhere else.

These results underscore the advantage the Liberals felt in this week's three by-elections: most Canadians are not looking for a change in direction or leadership, and that’s true for many people who didn’t cast a ballot for Carney last year.

Approval of the way “in which the federal government led by Mark Carney is handling its responsibilities” has hit a new high water mark at 70%.

A majority of those who voted BQ and NDP in 2025 show approval of the government, as do 38% of those who voted Conservative.

Three out of four (74%) say Carney is doing a good or acceptable job handling relations with the US. This includes 76% of past BQ voters, 79% of past NDP voters, and 47% of those who voted Conservative last year.

Nationally, Carney has a +39 net favourability rating, while Poilievre is -8. Avi Lewis is +1.

In Quebec, Carney is +47, Yves Francois Blanchet is +17, Poilievre is -21, Lewis is -11.

The very large majority (78%) believe the federal government made the right decision to reject the proposals of the Trump Administration and end the negotiations.

Over the coming days, I’ll explore and write more based on the data in our latest study with a particular look at how different generations see things today.

For the moment, what stands out most for me is the extraordinary degree of unity, especially in a time of duress. Canadians are galvanized by Trump’s attacks on Canada. Alongside that, Carney has gathered greater personal support from both the left and the right of the spectrum. His mandate is stronger today, than it was on election night in 2025.